BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Vermont has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hermit Thrush Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hermit Thrush in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Hermit Thrush Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Vermont is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.8–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Vermont is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.8–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.81.75.8
20273.81.75.8
20283.81.75.8
20293.81.85.8
20303.81.85.9

Hermit Thrush Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hardwick1720241966
Middlesex1020251968
Stratton920251966
Landgrove720251966
Northfld Fls720251980
Greensboro620251967
East Calais520251966
Stowe520241989
East Haven420251966
North Pownal320111975
Newbury320041986
Fletcher320251968
Waterville319801967
Bristol319961996
Marlboro220251967
S Reading220241968
Post Mills220241967
Shaftsbury220101978
S Wallingfrd220221967
St Johnsbury220251970
Hinesburg219921966
Gaysville120251966
W Rutland120251970
Colchester120221986
Grand Isle119971967

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.