BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Vermont has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-7%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hermit Thrush Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hermit Thrush in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Hermit Thrush Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.9 (95% range 1.8–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.9 (95% range 1.8–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.81.75.8
20263.81.75.9
20273.81.85.9
20283.81.85.9
20293.91.85.9

Hermit Thrush Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hardwick1720241966
Greensboro1020241967
St Johnsbury920241970
East Calais820241966
Middlesex720241968
East Haven620241966
Stratton520241966
Stowe520241989
Landgrove420241966
North Pownal320111975
Newbury320041986
Waterville319801967
Bristol319961996
S Reading220241968
Post Mills220241967
Shaftsbury220101978
S Wallingfrd220221967
Northfld Fls220211980
Hinesburg219921966
Marlboro120241967
Gaysville120211966
W Rutland120221970
Fletcher120241968
Colchester120221986
Grand Isle119971967

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.