BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Minnesota has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hermit Thrush Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hermit Thrush has surged in Minnesota: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hermit Thrush Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Minnesota is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.9–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Minnesota is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.9–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.84.1
20273.01.84.1
20283.01.84.1
20293.01.94.1
20303.01.94.2

Hermit Thrush Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nett Lake2620242013
Sawbill Lndg1820251973
Crane Lake1620251969
Mcgregor1320251993
Hart Lake1220251967
Chisholm1220242019
Cromwell1120251967
Sherry Lake1120221969
Blackduck1120222004
Sawbill Camp1020251993
Jordan1020251993
Glendale920251993
Debs820251969
Bigfork720251993
Lockport520251967
Waskish420251978
Red Lake420251993
Backus320171972
Floodwood320251967
Cass Lake220161980
Island Lake220171967
Bemidji219801967
Babbitt220251994
Tamarac Nwr120051991
Millville120102010

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.