BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Hermit Thrush in New Mexico has surged: up 771% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+771%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hermit Thrush Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hermit Thrush has surged in New Mexico: up 771% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Hermit Thrush Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in New Mexico is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.38–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.38–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in New Mexico is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.38–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.353.3
20261.80.363.3
20271.80.363.3
20281.80.373.3
20291.80.383.3

Hermit Thrush Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Angel Fire2620021992
Vallecitos1920241994
Cloudcroft1620241975
Mt. Taylor 21420242014
Reserve1020231993
Angel Fire 2620242005
Cebolla520231973
Emory Pass520241993
Carrizozo420241982
Stinking Lk.419991992
Mt. Taylor420121994
Bluewater Lake320211999
Claunch 2320242001
Capulin219931993
Pinon220161992
Ojo Sarco120241969
Pecos120171978
Claunch120001980
Dulce120242000
Mcgaffey120211995
Gallinas120241992
Vicks Peak120181992

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahomainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.