BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

Hermit Thrush in Maryland has surged: up 746% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+746%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hermit Thrush Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hermit Thrush in Maryland. See the full index history below.

Hermit Thrush Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Maryland is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.11–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hermit Thrush in Maryland is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.11–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.220.100.34
20270.230.100.35
20280.230.110.35
20290.230.110.35
20300.240.110.36

Hermit Thrush Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Hermit Thrush in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Nebo319911981
Jennings320251995
Finzel320251995
Vindex220191977
Accident220141992
Floyd120221967
Accident 2120242021
Bachman Mill119851985
Steyer120241996

Hermit Thrush Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoindianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.