BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cape May Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Cape May Warbler in New York has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+70%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cape May Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cape May Warbler in New York. See the full index history below.

Cape May Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Cape May Warbler in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2022TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2022 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cape May Warbler in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742022
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20180.020.000.05
20190.020.000.05
20200.020.000.05
20210.020.000.05
20220.020.000.05

Cape May Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Cape May Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horseshoe L.220132013
Balmat219861986
Gabriels120151975
St Regis Fls119881976
Underwood119931993
Highmarket119941981
Old Forge119741974
Newcomb119821981
Speculator119901981
Inlet120172011
S Berne119941994
S Horicon120062004

Cape May Warbler Population Trend in Other States

mainemichiganminnesotanew-hampshirevermontwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.