Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Cape May Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota
Cape May Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 719% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
+719%Since 1970
26Routes In State
53Years
Notable Cape May Warbler Trends in Minnesota
long arc increasecomputed index
Cape May Warbler has surged in Minnesota: up 718% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Cape May Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota
If the recent trend holds, Cape May Warbler in Minnesota is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.04–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-20%Change by 2029
0.32Projected 2029 index
0.04–0.6195% range
±59.4%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.30 | 0.02 | 0.59 |
| 2026 | 0.31 | 0.02 | 0.59 |
| 2027 | 0.31 | 0.03 | 0.60 |
| 2028 | 0.32 | 0.03 | 0.60 |
| 2029 | 0.32 | 0.04 | 0.61 |
Cape May Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota
| Sawbill Camp | 10 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Lockport | 6 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Jordan | 5 | 2023 | 1994 |
| Sherry Lake | 4 | 2022 | 2018 |
| Babbitt | 4 | 2017 | 2008 |
| Cohasset | 3 | 2013 | 1988 |
| Glendale | 3 | 2022 | 2010 |
| Hart Lake | 2 | 2024 | 1969 |
| Debs | 2 | 2024 | 1987 |
| Crane Lake | 2 | 2023 | 1978 |
| Blackduck | 2 | 2014 | 2014 |
| Tamarac Nwr | 1 | 2002 | 1999 |
| Nebish | 1 | 2019 | 2004 |
| Cromwell | 1 | 2024 | 1991 |
| Hovland | 1 | 2009 | 1986 |
| Sawbill Lndg | 1 | 2024 | 1973 |
| Floodwood | 1 | 2005 | 1983 |
| Little Fork | 1 | 2013 | 1979 |
| Lude | 1 | 1999 | 1980 |
| Waskish | 1 | 1983 | 1983 |
| Erie | 1 | 2009 | 2009 |
| Nett Lake | 1 | 2018 | 2014 |
| Brook Park | 1 | 2005 | 1998 |
| Mcgregor | 1 | 2013 | 2001 |
| Red Lake | 1 | 2015 | 2003 |
Cape May Warbler Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.