BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Varied Bunting

CardinalidaeForest birdsPasserina versicolor

Varied Bunting has risen sharply: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+50%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Varied Bunting

The Varied Bunting (Passerina versicolor) is a North American member of the Cardinals & Grosbeaks (Cardinalidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–8.5 in long (12–22 cm) — a medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 38 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 3 states, most concentrated in the Chihuahuan Desert.
Family
Cardinalidae · Forest birds

Notable Varied Bunting TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Varied Bunting. See the full index history below.

Varied Bunting Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Varied Bunting is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Varied Bunting is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.01
20260.010.000.01
20270.010.000.01
20280.010.000.01
20290.010.000.01

Where the Varied Bunting Is Detected

BBS routes recording Varied Bunting, sized by most recent count.

Varied Bunting Population Trend by State

Varied Bunting population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+14%19718
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a1
Texas-47%197029

Varied Bunting Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Varied Bunting population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Sierra Madre Occidental-33%19718
Chihuahuan Desert-76%197019

Varied Bunting Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 50% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.