BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Varied Bunting Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Varied Bunting in Texas has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Varied Bunting Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Varied Bunting in Texas. See the full index history below.

Varied Bunting Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Varied Bunting in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±152.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Varied Bunting in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.15
20260.070.000.15
20270.070.000.15
20280.070.000.15
20290.070.000.15

Varied Bunting Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Varied Bunting in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Presidio320152006
Marathon220102004
Pumpville220192012
Leakey220231997
Toyahvale220191997
Longfellow220231968
Sierra Blanc220092000
Ozona220211996
Indian Mtn220241988
Zapata119801980
Chisos Basin120231995
Mirando City119701970
San Ygnacio119781978
Cavasara Cr.120082008
E Georgetown119711971
Laredo119941994
Quitman Canyon 2120102010
Casa Piedra120151992
Montell119961996
Castolon120181994
Rockspring120042004
Devils R Cyn120241994
Guerra119921988
Quitman Cyn.120092008
Hot Springs120181967

Varied Bunting Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.