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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Varied Bunting Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Varied Bunting in Arizona has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+14%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Varied Bunting Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Varied Bunting in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Varied Bunting Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Varied Bunting in Arizona is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Varied Bunting in Arizona is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.000.44
20260.180.000.44
20270.180.000.44
20280.180.000.45
20290.180.000.45

Varied Bunting Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Varied Bunting in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pomerene720241968
Patagonia420241970
Amado420231999
Peña Blanca320231975
Portal120052005
Redington120212016
Sahuarita120192010
Mcneal120211999

Varied Bunting Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.