BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Varied Bunting In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Varied Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-76%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Varied Bunting has collapsed in Chihuahuan Desert: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Varied Bunting In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Varied Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±215.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±215.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Varied Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±215.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.000.59
20260.210.000.59
20270.210.000.58
20280.210.000.58
20290.210.000.58

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Varied Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PresidioTEXAS32015
LongfellowTEXAS22023
OzonaTEXAS22021
ToyahvaleTEXAS22019
Sierra BlancTEXAS22009
MarathonTEXAS22010
PumpvilleTEXAS22019
QueenNEW-MEXICO12016
Hot SpringsTEXAS12018
Black GapTEXAS12023
ShafterTEXAS11980
AltudaTEXAS12006
SlaughterTEXAS12014
Casa PiedraTEXAS12015
CastolonTEXAS12018
Devils R CynTEXAS12024
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS12009
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS12010
Chisos BasinTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.