BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-cockaded Woodpecker

PicidaeForest birdsDryobates borealis

Red-cockaded Woodpecker has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Red-cockaded Woodpecker

The Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Dryobates borealis) is a North American member of the Woodpeckers (Picidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6–19.5 in long (15–50 cm) — a chisel-billed climber (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 88 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 10 states, most concentrated in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Family
Picidae · Forest birds

Notable Red-cockaded Woodpecker TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-cockaded Woodpecker. See the full index history below.

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.010.03
20260.020.010.03
20270.020.010.03
20280.020.010.03
20290.020.010.03

Where the Red-cockaded Woodpecker Is Detected

BBS routes recording Red-cockaded Woodpecker, sized by most recent count.

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Trend by State

Red-cockaded Woodpecker population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-22%19699
Arkansasinsufficient datan/a3
Florida14×196830
Georgia-27%19815
Louisiana-76%19699
Mississippi-38%19935
North Carolina-72%197110
South Carolina+92%19689
Texas-50%19707
Virginiainsufficient datan/a1

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Red-cockaded Woodpecker population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-56%196916
Southeastern Coastal Plain+134%196850
Appalachian Mountains-14%19754
Peninsular Florida+374%196916

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 96% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.