BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Texas has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-50%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-cockaded Woodpecker Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Texas. See the full index history below.

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.06
20260.000.000.06
20270.000.000.05
20280.000.000.05
20290.000.000.05

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Weches320182011
Oak Grove 2220072007
Powell Park220132006
New Waverly120241969
Diboll119801980
Crossroads119671967
Mt. Selman120232023

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgialouisianamississippinorth-carolinasouth-carolinavirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.