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Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Red-cockaded Woodpecker in South Carolina has surged: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+92%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-cockaded Woodpecker Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-cockaded Woodpecker has surged in South Carolina: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in South Carolina is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in South Carolina is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.000.88
20260.310.000.88
20270.300.000.87
20280.300.000.87
20290.290.000.86

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Red-cockaded Woodpecker in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sandhills1820241994
Coward519841969
Jamestown220121967
Rome219801976
Boykin Ml Pd219661966
Hardeeville120192016
Adams Run120232023
New Holland120222022
Pinewood120012000

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgialouisianamississippinorth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.