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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Florida has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

14×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-cockaded Woodpecker Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-cockaded Woodpecker has surged in Florida: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Florida is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.23–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–0.9495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Florida is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.23–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.180.90
20270.550.200.91
20280.560.200.92
20290.570.220.93
20300.580.230.94

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goethe1820252010
Olustee1120251992
Citrus720252010
Bloxham620251987
Alligator Pt520252001
Webb320251996
Blountstown219861986
Broad Branch219771977
Osceola220251999
Ocala220252010
Croom220251993
Micanopy219741974
Dupuis W.E.A220242011
Salvista219771977
Blackwater220251987
Mossy Head120101967
Apalachicola120221988
Port St Joe119691969
Ft Gadsden120251971
Myakka Head119901966
St Augustine119781971
Hilliard119821967
Babcock Rnch119891989
Mabel119681968
Childs119761976

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasgeorgialouisianamississippinorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.