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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Red-cockaded Woodpecker in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-72%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-cockaded Woodpecker Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-cockaded Woodpecker has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±222.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±222.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±222.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.22
20260.080.000.22
20270.080.000.22
20280.080.000.21
20290.070.000.21

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Red-cockaded Woodpecker in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shallotte319871967
Wards Corner319741966
Lake Surf320231998
Raeford220241990
Mashoes219711971
South. Pines219961995
California220121972
Supply119971995
Sheep Ridge120241994
Broad Creek120231993

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgialouisianamississippisouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.