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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Red-cockaded Woodpecker in North Carolina has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-50%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-cockaded Woodpecker Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-cockaded Woodpecker in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±243.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±243.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±243.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.000.22
20270.080.000.22
20280.080.000.22
20290.080.000.22
20300.080.000.21

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Red-cockaded Woodpecker in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheep Ridge420251994
Shallotte319871967
Wards Corner319741966
Broad Creek320251993
Lake Surf320231998
Mashoes219711971
South. Pines219961995
California220121972
Supply119971995
Raeford120251990

Red-cockaded Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgialouisianamississippisouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.