BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-cockaded Woodpecker In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 133% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+133%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-cockaded Woodpecker has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 133% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-cockaded Woodpecker In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.07–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.07–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.180.070.29
20270.180.070.29
20280.180.070.29
20290.180.070.29
20300.190.070.30

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OlusteeFLORIDA112025
BloxhamFLORIDA62025
SandhillsSOUTH-CAROLINA62025
Alligator PtFLORIDA52025
CowardSOUTH-CAROLINA51984
LatimerMISSISSIPPI42017
Sheep RidgeNORTH-CAROLINA42025
Latimer 2MISSISSIPPI32022
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA31987
Wards CornerNORTH-CAROLINA31974
Lake SurfNORTH-CAROLINA32023
Broad CreekNORTH-CAROLINA32025
MclellanALABAMA22025
Alabama PtALABAMA21977
FoleyALABAMA21973
BlountstownFLORIDA21986
Broad BranchFLORIDA21977
BlackwaterFLORIDA22025
OsceolaFLORIDA22025
LacombeLOUISIANA21973
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA21971
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA22012
South. PinesNORTH-CAROLINA21996
JamestownSOUTH-CAROLINA22012
RomeSOUTH-CAROLINA21980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.