BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-cockaded Woodpecker In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+134%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-cockaded Woodpecker has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-cockaded Woodpecker In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.07–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.07–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.060.28
20260.170.060.28
20270.170.070.28
20280.180.070.29
20290.180.070.29

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SandhillsSOUTH-CAROLINA182024
OlusteeFLORIDA122022
BloxhamFLORIDA112022
CowardSOUTH-CAROLINA51984
OsceolaFLORIDA42024
LatimerMISSISSIPPI42017
BlackwaterFLORIDA32024
Latimer 2MISSISSIPPI32022
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA31987
Wards CornerNORTH-CAROLINA31974
Lake SurfNORTH-CAROLINA32023
Alabama PtALABAMA21977
FoleyALABAMA21973
BlountstownFLORIDA21986
Broad BranchFLORIDA21977
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA22019
Alligator PtFLORIDA22023
CouncilGEORGIA22017
LacombeLOUISIANA21973
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA21971
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA22012
South. PinesNORTH-CAROLINA21996
RaefordNORTH-CAROLINA22024
JamestownSOUTH-CAROLINA22012
RomeSOUTH-CAROLINA21980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.