BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-cockaded Woodpecker In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 374% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+374%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-cockaded Woodpecker has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 374% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-cockaded Woodpecker In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.11–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.9495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.11–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.490.070.90
20260.500.080.91
20270.510.090.92
20280.510.100.93
20290.520.110.94

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CitrusFLORIDA142024
GoetheFLORIDA122024
OcalaFLORIDA52024
WebbFLORIDA52024
MicanopyFLORIDA21974
SalvistaFLORIDA21977
CroomFLORIDA22024
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA22024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA11990
St AugustineFLORIDA11978
MabelFLORIDA11968
ChildsFLORIDA11976
KenansvilleFLORIDA12019
IndiantownFLORIDA11977
PalmdaleFLORIDA11987
Babcock RnchFLORIDA11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.