BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-cockaded Woodpecker In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 431% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+431%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-cockaded Woodpecker has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 431% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-cockaded Woodpecker In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.14–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.14–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.530.100.97
20270.540.110.98
20280.550.120.99
20290.560.131.00
20300.570.141.0

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Red-cockaded Woodpecker in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GoetheFLORIDA182025
CitrusFLORIDA72025
WebbFLORIDA32025
MicanopyFLORIDA21974
SalvistaFLORIDA21977
OcalaFLORIDA22025
CroomFLORIDA22025
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA22024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA11990
St AugustineFLORIDA11978
MabelFLORIDA11968
ChildsFLORIDA11976
KenansvilleFLORIDA12019
IndiantownFLORIDA11977
PalmdaleFLORIDA11987
Babcock RnchFLORIDA11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.