BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Crossbill

FringillidaeForest birdsLoxia leucoptera

White-winged Crossbill has surged: up 49× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

49×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
188RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the White-winged Crossbill

The White-winged Crossbill (Loxia leucoptera) is a North American member of the Finches (Fringillidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–6.5 in long (11–16 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 188 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 13 states, most concentrated in the BCR 4.
Family
Fringillidae · Forest birds

Notable White-winged Crossbill TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-winged Crossbill. See the full index history below.

White-winged Crossbill Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.08–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.08–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.070.26
20260.170.070.26
20270.170.070.26
20280.170.080.27
20290.170.080.27

Where the White-winged Crossbill Is Detected

BBS routes recording White-winged Crossbill, sized by most recent count.

White-winged Crossbill Population Trend by State

White-winged Crossbill population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska+151%198482
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a7
Idahoinsufficient datan/a1
Maine+71%197630
Michigan-58%199013
Minnesota-85%199612
Montana-46%19915
New Hampshireinsufficient datan/a5
New Yorkinsufficient datan/a6
Vermontinsufficient datan/a4
Washingtoninsufficient datan/a2
Wisconsin+114%197715
Wyominginsufficient datan/a6

White-winged Crossbill Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

White-winged Crossbill population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 4+236%198458
Northern Pacific Rainforest+14%198517
Northern Rockies-75%199012
Boreal Hardwood Transition+158%197839
Atlantic Northern Forest+179%197243

White-winged Crossbill Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 4796% since 1972.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.