BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Crossbill In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

White-winged Crossbill in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 179% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+179%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Crossbill has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 179% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

White-winged Crossbill In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±695.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±695.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±695.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.220.000.75
20250.230.000.75
20260.230.000.76
20270.230.000.76
20280.230.000.76

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording White-winged Crossbill in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seboomook LkMAINE641998
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE251998
Carrying PlMAINE151998
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE151977
Moose RiverMAINE141998
WashburnMAINE91996
Big TwentyMAINE92007
NesowadnehunMAINE92021
GreenvilleMAINE81985
LudlowMAINE81996
WestbrookMAINE71987
Heron LakeMAINE72000
NorthfieldMAINE51976
TopsfieldMAINE41991
Weeks BrookMAINE32007
Church HillMAINE32000
HighmarketNEW-YORK32002
Wilson MillsMAINE22007
South ArmMAINE22010
EastbrookMAINE22023
AuroraMAINE22017
CarrabassettMAINE22011
Clayton LakeMAINE22001
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE22021
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE22001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.