BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-winged Crossbill In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

White-winged Crossbill in BCR 4 has surged: up 230% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+230%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Crossbill has surged in BCR 4: up 230% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

White-winged Crossbill In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 225% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 1.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+225%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±119.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 225% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 1.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.41.214
20277.51.314
20287.61.314
20297.61.414
20307.71.514

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording White-winged Crossbill in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kanuti CanynALASKA542024
ChistochinaALASKA482024
CottonwoodALASKA281988
Chena RiverALASKA201988
TonsinaALASKA202021
Anchor RiverALASKA202009
Kanuti LakeALASKA202024
DeltaALASKA182016
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA172021
Mud RiverALASKA162024
CircleALASKA152025
CantwellALASKA132025
Kenny LakeALASKA112025
SavageALASKA92024
KachemakALASKA92003
LivengoodALASKA82021
EagleALASKA72025
Nicholai SlALASKA72023
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA62025
Moose CreekALASKA62022
Manley Ht SpALASKA52022
Murphy DomeALASKA52023
Kobuk River (Short)ALASKA51992
NorthwayALASKA42025
MonahanALASKA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.