BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Crossbill In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Generalists

White-winged Crossbill in BCR 4 has surged: up 236% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+236%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Crossbill has surged in BCR 4: up 236% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

White-winged Crossbill In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 2.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 2.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.91.814
20268.01.914
20278.12.014
20288.22.114
20298.32.214

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording White-winged Crossbill in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chatanika RALASKA642023
Kanuti CanynALASKA542024
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA522024
ChickenALASKA512023
ChistochinaALASKA482024
Donelly DomeALASKA282018
CottonwoodALASKA281988
CircleALASKA202024
Chena RiverALASKA201988
TonsinaALASKA202021
Anchor RiverALASKA202009
Kanuti LakeALASKA202024
Swan Lake RdALASKA182023
DeltaALASKA182016
CantwellALASKA172019
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA172021
Mud RiverALASKA162024
EagleALASKA132024
SavageALASKA92024
KachemakALASKA92003
LivengoodALASKA82021
Nicholai SlALASKA72023
Moose CreekALASKA62022
NorthwayALASKA52022
Burma RoadALASKA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.