BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Crossbill In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

White-winged Crossbill in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+14%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-winged Crossbill in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

White-winged Crossbill In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.000.82
20260.270.000.82
20270.270.000.82
20280.270.000.82
20290.270.000.82

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording White-winged Crossbill in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harlequin L.ALASKA462023
HainesALASKA252024
SkagwayALASKA162021
Elmendorf (Short)ALASKA131984
JuneauALASKA92011
CordovaALASKA81983
Thorne BayALASKA31998
YakutatALASKA32024
SewardALASKA21992
ZaremboALASKA22021
Sheep MtnALASKA12014
HopeALASKA12024
Zimovia StrtALASKA12024
HoonahALASKA12015
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA12012
Copper RiverALASKA12006
Stikine RiverALASKA12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.