BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Crossbill Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

White-winged Crossbill in Alaska has surged: up 151% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+151%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-winged Crossbill Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Crossbill has surged in Alaska: up 151% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

White-winged Crossbill Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in Alaska is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 1.6–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in Alaska is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 1.6–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.01.48.7
20265.11.48.7
20275.11.58.8
20285.21.68.8
20295.31.68.9

White-winged Crossbill Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording White-winged Crossbill in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chatanika R6420231993
Kanuti Canyn5420241998
Chena Hot Spring 25220241999
Chicken5120231992
Chistochina4820241990
Harlequin L.4620231994
Donelly Dome2820182011
Cottonwood2819881987
Haines2520241989
Circle2020241987
Chena River2019881988
Tonsina2020212016
Anchor River2020091983
Kanuti Lake2020242006
Swan Lake Rd1820231984
Dillingham1820172017
Delta1820161996
Cantwell1720191994
Ft. Richrdsn1720211994
Mud River1620241997
Skagway1620211994
Eagle1320241991
Elmendorf (Short)1319841984
Juneau920112002
Savage920242004

White-winged Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

coloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.