BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Crossbill Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesGeneralists

White-winged Crossbill in Wisconsin has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+114%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-winged Crossbill Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Crossbill has surged in Wisconsin: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

White-winged Crossbill Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±312.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±312.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±312.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.40
20260.090.000.40
20270.090.000.40
20280.090.000.40
20290.090.000.40

White-winged Crossbill Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording White-winged Crossbill in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Union Twp1020081977
Grand View719871987
Washington I419961996
Land O Lakes220092000
Phillips219881988
Mcnaughton219971997
Chaffey120052005
Iron River120122012
Minong119771969
Bayfield120242023
Shanagolden120241978
Mather119741969
Amnicon Falls120242024
Mellen120082008
Eagle River120232023

White-winged Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkvermontwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.