BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Crossbill Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

White-winged Crossbill in Maine has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+71%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-winged Crossbill Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Crossbill has risen sharply in Maine: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

White-winged Crossbill Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in Maine is projected to rise about 226% by 2028 — from 0.13 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±476.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+226%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±476.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in Maine is projected to rise about 226% by 2028 — from 0.13 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±476.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.400.001.6
20250.410.001.6
20260.410.001.6
20270.410.001.6
20280.410.001.6

White-winged Crossbill Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording White-winged Crossbill in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Seboomook Lk6419981991
Grnd Lk Strm2519981998
Carrying Pl1519981998
Moose River1419981984
Nesowadnehun920211996
Washburn919961994
Big Twenty920071993
Greenville819851972
Ludlow819961986
Westbrook719871987
Heron Lake720001983
Northfield519761976
Topsfield419911991
Weeks Brook320071996
Church Hill320002000
Wilson Mills220071997
South Arm220102010
Eastbrook220231985
Aurora220172017
Carrabassett220111986
Clayton Lake220011999
Otisfield Gr119991999
Hancock120102010
Cooper120071981
Cambridge119921992

White-winged Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoidahomichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-yorkvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.