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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-winged Crossbill Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

White-winged Crossbill in Minnesota has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

-88%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-winged Crossbill Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Crossbill has collapsed in Minnesota: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

White-winged Crossbill Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.40
20270.010.000.39
20280.010.000.38
20290.000.000.37
20300.000.000.37

White-winged Crossbill Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording White-winged Crossbill in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lude2020062006
Red Lake820001996
Little Fork319961996
Sawbill Camp220192019
Glendale220212007
Cromwell220252000
Lockport120191996
Sawbill Lndg120241989
Hart Lake119961996
Jordan120161996
Crane Lake120212021
Hovland119911991

White-winged Crossbill Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoidahomainemichiganmontananew-hampshirenew-yorkvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.