BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-winged Crossbill In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

White-winged Crossbill in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 158% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+158%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-winged Crossbill has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 158% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

White-winged Crossbill In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 109% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±243.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+109%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±243.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-winged Crossbill in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 109% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±243.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.54
20260.120.000.54
20270.120.000.54
20280.110.000.54
20290.110.000.54

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording White-winged Crossbill in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN351987
LudeMINNESOTA202006
Union TwpWISCONSIN102008
Red LakeMINNESOTA82000
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN72015
Grand ViewWISCONSIN71987
BootjackMICHIGAN62007
BerglandMICHIGAN52016
Washington IWISCONSIN41996
Little ForkMINNESOTA31996
Imp LakeMICHIGAN22019
Seney NwrMICHIGAN22007
CromwellMINNESOTA22022
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA22019
GlendaleMINNESOTA22021
Land O LakesWISCONSIN22009
PhillipsWISCONSIN21988
McnaughtonWISCONSIN21997
ShingletonMICHIGAN12012
MuskallongeMICHIGAN12016
GilchristMICHIGAN12010
Pine RiverMICHIGAN12007
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN11992
Betchler LksMICHIGAN12004
SidnawMICHIGAN12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.