BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Population Analysis

PicidaeForest birdsDryobates scalaris

Ladder-backed Woodpecker has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
367RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Ladder-backed Woodpecker

The Ladder-backed Woodpecker (Dryobates scalaris) is a North American member of the Woodpeckers (Picidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6–19.5 in long (15–50 cm) — a chisel-billed climber (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 367 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 9 states, most concentrated in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Family
Picidae · Forest birds

Notable Ladder-backed Woodpecker TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ladder-backed Woodpecker has risen sharply in surveyed states: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.17 (95% range 0.13–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.17 (95% range 0.13–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.120.21
20270.170.120.22
20280.170.120.22
20290.170.130.22
20300.170.130.22

Where the Ladder-backed Woodpecker Is Detected

BBS routes recording Ladder-backed Woodpecker, sized by most recent count.

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Population Trend by State

Ladder-backed Woodpecker population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-14%197058
California+80%197133
Colorado-34%20036
Kansasinsufficient datan/a1
Nevada-20%19758
New Mexico+184%197051
Oklahoma+95%197418
Texas+5%1969190
Utahinsufficient datan/a2

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Ladder-backed Woodpecker population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin+9%19935
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-73%197020
Shortgrass Prairie-75%196950
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+296%196937
Edwards Plateau+4%196920
Oaks and Prairies+21%196941
Coastal California+11%19865
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-4%197062
Sierra Madre Occidental-47%197025
Chihuahuan Desert-12%196955
Tamaulipan Brushlands+81%196928
Gulf Coastal Prairie+558%197318

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 53% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.