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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Arizona has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-14%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ladder-backed Woodpecker Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.7 (95% range 0.80–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.80–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.7 (95% range 0.80–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.792.6
20271.70.792.6
20281.70.792.7
20291.70.802.7
20301.70.802.7

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pomerene2120251968
Mcneal1120251995
Bates Well920232003
Cibola Lake720241993
Ajo 2720192009
Squaw Peak619691968
Redington620251993
Peña Blanca520251975
Amado520251993
Dragoon420091993
Rucker420091995
Dateland420151995
Cutter 2420182015
Skull Valley420241996
Araby420231993
Red Rock420141997
Sahuarita420251992
Organ Pipe320231990
Sunizona319921969
Alamo Res.320251992
Bartlett Res320251993
Cabeza Priet320252003
Portal220251975
Rose Wells219681968
Prescott220251976

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.