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Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Ladder-backed Woodpecker in California has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+80%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ladder-backed Woodpecker Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ladder-backed Woodpecker has surged in California: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in California is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.05–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in California is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.05–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.050.23
20270.140.050.23
20280.140.050.23
20290.140.050.23
20300.140.050.24

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Ladder-backed Woodpecker in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cima1120211971
Joshua Tree 2820252013
Coachella Cn620131977
Kelso Valley520251974
Anza420041976
Ivanpah320191988
Flynn319961988
Joshua Tree220021970
Goldstone220061970
Barstow219971969
Palo Verde220181977
Tecopa220211985
Essex219911988
Cottonwood220171976
Lone Pine219731972
Green Valley120181997
Jacumba120252024
Cholla Gard.120191996
Haiwee Res120041975
Onyx119981970
Valley Wells120221969
Oak Grove120082008
Glamis120181977
Anza Borrego120251969
Deep Springs120212021

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.