BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Ladder-backed Woodpecker in New Mexico has surged: up 184% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+184%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ladder-backed Woodpecker Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ladder-backed Woodpecker has surged in New Mexico: up 184% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in New Mexico is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.63–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.96Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in New Mexico is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.63–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.910.581.2
20270.920.591.3
20280.940.601.3
20290.950.621.3
20300.960.631.3

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Ladder-backed Woodpecker in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mesilla920001992
La Cienega820221968
Jornada720251976
Laborcita 2620252022
Variadero620221994
Roswell520241968
Pinon520171992
Pecos420151977
Capitan Mtn.420171998
Cooley Lake320221997
Mountainair320241999
Emory Pass320251993
San Antonio219771974
Gage220251983
Rodeo220251988
Gallo Arroyo220151996
Pastura220181994
Pep220152002
Red Rock220251992
Hatchet Peak220251994
Logan220251977
Claunch 2220252002
San Simon120191979
Cebolla120102010
Tucumcari119751975

Ladder-backed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.