BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ladder-backed Woodpecker In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 366% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+366%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ladder-backed Woodpecker has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 366% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.18–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.18–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.160.78
20260.470.160.78
20270.480.170.79
20280.480.170.79
20290.490.180.80

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EldoradoTEXAS62023
SilverTEXAS52024
Shields 2TEXAS52023
ReedOKLAHOMA41996
HaskellTEXAS42022
Beaver CreekTEXAS42024
CoopertonOKLAHOMA32024
GraybackTEXAS32024
HawleyTEXAS32013
GirardTEXAS32023
WoodwardOKLAHOMA22022
PhrosoOKLAHOMA22024
Pear ValleyTEXAS22024
WeinertTEXAS21994
ClarendonTEXAS22024
ChildressTEXAS22022
RotanTEXAS21998
ShieldsTEXAS22001
WilliamsTEXAS22023
LakeviewTEXAS22021
RandlettOKLAHOMA12024
CookietownOKLAHOMA12002
GrimesOKLAHOMA12015
ErickOKLAHOMA12018
HollisOKLAHOMA12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.