BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ladder-backed Woodpecker In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 610% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+610%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ladder-backed Woodpecker has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 610% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 263% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.54–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+263%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.54–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 263% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.54–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.462.1
20261.30.482.2
20271.30.502.2
20281.40.522.2
20291.40.542.2

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola BeachTEXAS62009
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS62024
McfaddinTEXAS62016
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS42023
Goliad PrairieTEXAS42016
IndianolaTEXAS22023
BaysideTEXAS22010
San PedroTEXAS22023
Lag AtascosaTEXAS12024
PetronilaTEXAS12022
Hinkles FerTEXAS12012
VanderbiltTEXAS11974
KatyTEXAS12022
Rock IslandTEXAS12024
Oyster LakeTEXAS12023
Bayside 2TEXAS12004
Moon Lake 2TEXAS12023
Bayside 3TEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.