BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ladder-backed Woodpecker In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-50%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ladder-backed Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.004.0
20261.70.004.0
20271.60.004.0
20281.60.003.9
20291.60.003.9

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PomereneARIZONA142024
Bartlett ResARIZONA62024
Peña BlancaARIZONA52023
SahuaritaARIZONA52024
Skull ValleyARIZONA42024
RedingtonARIZONA42023
DragoonARIZONA42009
RuckerARIZONA42009
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO42024
SunizonaARIZONA31992
CutterARIZONA22014
McnealARIZONA22024
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO22023
PrescottARIZONA12022
Mormon LakeARIZONA11974
Aztec PeakARIZONA11978
San SimonARIZONA12024
PatagoniaARIZONA12024
AmadoARIZONA12023
Carr MtnARIZONA12022
PortalARIZONA12024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12023
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12022
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.