BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ladder-backed Woodpecker In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Ladder-backed Woodpecker In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.004.0
20271.70.004.0
20281.70.004.0
20291.70.004.0
20301.60.003.9

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PomereneARIZONA212025
McnealARIZONA112025
RedingtonARIZONA62025
Peña BlancaARIZONA52025
AmadoARIZONA52025
Skull ValleyARIZONA42024
SahuaritaARIZONA42025
DragoonARIZONA42009
RuckerARIZONA42009
SunizonaARIZONA31992
Bartlett ResARIZONA32025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO32025
PrescottARIZONA22025
PatagoniaARIZONA22025
CutterARIZONA22014
PortalARIZONA22025
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA22025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22025
Mormon LakeARIZONA11974
Aztec PeakARIZONA11978
San SimonARIZONA12024
Carr MtnARIZONA12022
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12022
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12025
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.