BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ladder-backed Woodpecker In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ladder-backed Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ladder-backed Woodpecker In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 83% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+83%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 83% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.000.56
20260.220.000.56
20270.220.000.56
20280.220.000.56
20290.220.000.56

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Ladder-backed Woodpecker in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO62022
PecosTEXAS42017
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO32022
LoganNEW-MEXICO32024
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA32015
GilpinCOLORADO22023
TrincheraCOLORADO22021
FloydNEW-MEXICO22023
PepNEW-MEXICO22015
HobbsNEW-MEXICO22024
RankinTEXAS22023
LamesaTEXAS22014
Frankel CityTEXAS22022
KermitTEXAS21999
StilesTEXAS22023
DoughertyTEXAS22016
DalhartTEXAS22017
Mica ButteCOLORADO11976
VillegreenCOLORADO12021
Cone MtnCOLORADO12016
NinaviewCOLORADO12024
LakinKANSAS11992
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO11975
CaprockNEW-MEXICO12015
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO11977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.