BirdAnalyst
Guild · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Ohio

All statesOhio

64 species in this guild. As a group they are +42%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Ohio Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Ohio is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 5.9–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.9–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Ohio is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 5.9–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.85.87.7
20276.85.97.8
20286.85.97.8
20296.95.97.8
20306.95.97.9

Member Species In Ohio

Forest birds species in Ohio.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Summer TanagerCardinalidae-76%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-69%
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-66%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-64%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-64%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-45%
Prairie WarblerParulidae-39%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae-28%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae-23%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae-18%
Song SparrowPasserellidae-13%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae-8%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-5%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-5%
Warbling VireoVireonidae-4%
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae-3%
Tufted TitmouseParidae-2%
Purple FinchFringillidae+0%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+7%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+13%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+17%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae+20%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+24%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+30%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+36%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+36%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae+58%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+59%
American RobinTurdidae+66%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae+68%
Blue JayCorvidae+84%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+103%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+103%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+116%
VeeryTurdidae+121%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+130%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+137%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+143%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+154%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+156%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+173%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae+241%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+259%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+260%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+274%
Wood ThrushTurdidae+288%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+299%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+325%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+365%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+366%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae+367%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+369%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+501%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+526%
American RedstartParulidae+562%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+600%
Pine WarblerParulidae+694%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+780%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae13×
OvenbirdParulidae15×
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae18×
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae18×
Hooded WarblerParulidae21×
Northern ParulaParulidae25×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.