BirdAnalyst
Guild · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Ohio

All statesOhio

42 species in this guild. As a group they are +83%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Ohio is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 5.2–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Ohio is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 5.2–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.85.06.7
20265.95.16.7
20275.95.16.7
20286.05.16.8
20296.05.26.8

Member Species In Ohio

Forest birds species in Ohio.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-66%
Prairie WarblerParulidae-34%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae-23%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae-19%
Warbling VireoVireonidae-11%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-8%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae-1%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+3%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+3%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae+20%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+27%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+34%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+38%
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae+41%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+57%
American RobinTurdidae+72%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+78%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae+96%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+101%
VeeryTurdidae+112%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+123%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+125%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+130%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+163%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+172%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+248%
Wood ThrushTurdidae+303%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+313%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+334%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+374%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+422%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+499%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+515%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+603%
American RedstartParulidae+666%
Pine WarblerParulidae+789%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+941%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae15×
OvenbirdParulidae15×
Hooded WarblerParulidae20×
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae21×
Northern ParulaParulidae24×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.