BirdAnalyst
Guild · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Pennsylvania

All statesPennsylvania

78 species in this guild. As a group they are +29%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Pennsylvania Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.2 (95% range 5.6–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.6–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.2 (95% range 5.6–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.15.46.7
20276.15.56.7
20286.15.56.7
20296.15.56.8
20306.25.66.8

Member Species In Pennsylvania

Forest birds species in Pennsylvania.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-96%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae-96%
White-throated SparrowPasserellidae-94%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae-91%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-79%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae-76%
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae-76%
Nashville WarblerParulidae-75%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae-73%
Northern WaterthrushParulidae-61%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-61%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae-53%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-49%
Purple FinchFringillidae-45%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-39%
American GoldfinchFringillidae-25%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae-25%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-23%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae-16%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae-15%
Prairie WarblerParulidae-13%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae-10%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-10%
American RobinTurdidae-9%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-6%
Mourning WarblerParulidae-3%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae-1%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae-0%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+8%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+10%
Blue JayCorvidae+35%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+36%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+45%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae+47%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+63%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae+64%
Canada WarblerParulidae+66%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+67%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+69%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+73%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+79%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+89%
VeeryTurdidae+90%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+98%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+99%
American RedstartParulidae+131%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+145%
Northern ParulaParulidae+146%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+149%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae+155%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+167%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+204%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+207%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+233%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+234%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+243%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae+246%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+256%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+260%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+330%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+339%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+357%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+448%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+470%
OvenbirdParulidae+524%
Magnolia WarblerParulidae+579%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+702%
Pine WarblerParulidae+723%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+818%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+836%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+856%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae13×
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae17×
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae23×
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae33×
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae43×
Yellow-bellied SapsuckerPicidae44×
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae52×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.