BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Pennsylvania has surged: up 330% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+330%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Vireo Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Pennsylvania: up 330% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.70–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.70–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.70–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.980.671.3
20270.990.681.3
20281.000.681.3
20291.00.691.3
20301.00.701.3

Yellow-throated Vireo Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Honesdale1020251972
Canadensis720251985
Margaret720251988
Stoneybreak720251992
Poyntelle620251973
Peru Mills620241966
Clover520251981
Landisburg520251978
Parkwood420251984
Shelocta420251974
Duboistown420212018
Espyville320251995
Whig Hill320251966
Millville320221976
Starlight319991973
Kittanning320251975
Geeseytown320231987
Clear Spring320251968
Pine Gr Mill320251969
Jefferson320251966
Harrisville320251997
Starlight 2320242000
Elizabethvil320251996
Drehersville 2320252013
Berwick320081986

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.