BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Pennsylvania has surged: up 290% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+290%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Vireo Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Pennsylvania: up 290% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.68–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.98Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.68–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.68–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.950.641.3
20260.960.651.3
20270.970.661.3
20280.970.671.3
20290.980.681.3

Yellow-throated Vireo Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Margaret1020241988
Poyntelle920241973
Canadensis720241985
Honesdale620241972
Peru Mills620241966
Shelocta520241974
Waller420241982
Hop Bottom420241967
Kittanning420241975
Clear Spring420241968
Jefferson420231966
Duboistown420212018
Landisburg420241978
Stoneybreak420241992
Harmonsburg320231968
Rush320241970
Millville320221976
Starlight319991973
Beaver320241986
Geeseytown320231987
Starlight 2320242000
Mars320231989
Berwick320081986
Slippery Rk219921984
Espyville220241995

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.