BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Texas has surged: up 307% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+307%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Vireo Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Texas: up 307% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Texas is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 0.80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.30–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Texas is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 0.80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.30–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.500.270.73
20270.510.280.73
20280.510.280.74
20290.520.290.75
20300.530.300.76

Yellow-throated Vireo Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Diboll1420251968
Lance Rosier Bith920192014
Fred920251995
Montell820251995
Weches720252000
Livingston620251971
Athens620252002
Alexander St620251995
Dripping Spg520251985
Prairie Mtn.520251997
Big Sandy Bith420242016
Cayuga420252013
Caledonia420251969
Powell Park 2420252022
Crossroads420241977
Leakey420251994
Smyrna 2420252011
Bon Wier420251996
Decatur420172017
Oak Grove 2320252007
Thornton 2320101997
Massey Lake320252012
Morton320251972
Liberty Hill320252023
Rockspring320251996

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.