BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in North Dakota has surged: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+157%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Vireo Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in North Dakota: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in North Dakota is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.13–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in North Dakota is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.13–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.110.52
20270.320.120.53
20280.330.120.53
20290.330.130.54
20300.340.130.54

Yellow-throated Vireo Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle Mtns920251980
Cooperstown220251975
Walcott120082008
Kempton120131978
Emerado120241975
Bowesmont120111977
Nash120131987
Webster120102010
Rolla119691969
Abercrombie119831970
Denbigh120232023
Abercrombie 2120182017

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.