BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Michigan has surged: up 826% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+826%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Vireo Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Michigan: up 826% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Michigan is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Michigan is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.71.12.3
20271.71.12.3
20281.71.12.3
20291.81.22.3
20301.81.22.4

Yellow-throated Vireo Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nashville820251968
Scottville720251983
Bravo620151974
Tahquamenon620021975
Cohoctah620252021
Crystal Fls420251985
Remus420251986
Mottville420251968
Drayton Plns419871977
Harrietta420251991
Lapeer420252000
New Buffalo420141992
Allegan Wma420191993
Almena420151993
Bear Lake320251967
Galesburg320251969
Howardsville320251974
Riggsville320172017
Skeels320111967
Homer320211985
Prattville320211967
Rochester320251993
Hamburg320011984
Barry S.G.A.320121995
Barry S.G.A. 2320192013

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.