BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in New Jersey has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+166%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Vireo Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in New Jersey: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.78–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.78–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.78–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.701.9
20261.30.721.9
20271.30.741.9
20281.30.761.9
20291.40.781.9

Yellow-throated Vireo Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
High Point1220241977
Hope719941974
Kemah Lake620241966
Ramseysburg520241995
Midvale220051976
Bloomsbury220241990
Dover220191977
Croton 2220232008
Woodbury Hgt119871967
Greenwich119741974
Spraguetown 2120052005
Toms River119771977
Ancora119661966
Bennett Mill119661966
Sandbrook120231971
Holmansville119931976
Clarksville119831976
New Bedford119951995
Croton119991971
Robbinsville119661966
Pottersville120221983
Gillette120241990
Cranbury119881988
Roosevelt120131986
Pomona119821982

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.