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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in North Carolina has surged: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+97%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Vireo Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in North Carolina: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in North Carolina is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.3–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in North Carolina is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.3–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.22.9
20262.11.22.9
20272.11.23.0
20282.11.33.0
20292.11.33.0

Yellow-throated Vireo Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shallotte1319911966
Sturgills1320242008
Jackson920171995
Chowan River920062002
Arcola820241971
Rheasville820172005
Speed720241969
California620131972
Reelsboro620191997
Bullock620241997
Gupton620242001
California 2520242014
Todd520231995
Ernul520092008
Youngsville420241967
Call420241968
Eden420241989
Lake Surf420241998
Spring Hope420242002
Oakboro320241969
Jamesville320241983
Maple Hill320221995
Pinetops320242000
Sheffield320211994
Monticello320242000

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.