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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Arkansas has surged: up 417% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+417%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Vireo Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Arkansas: up 417% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Arkansas is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.7–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Arkansas is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.7–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.54.6
20263.11.54.7
20273.21.64.7
20283.21.64.8
20293.31.74.8

Yellow-throated Vireo Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sims3520242010
Ozark Nf2220241995
Hatfield 21720242017
Old Milo1320241967
Locust Bayou1320231967
Poyen 21320242008
Rupert1220241973
Poyen920071967
Hope820241971
Princeton820211998
Princeton 2720222022
Nance620241992
Stark520221968
Rudy520242011
Fulton420241981
Compton420221967
Ravenden Springs420132010
Springhill420222010
Crows319911967
Coal Hill320231970
Marshall320182012
Boston Mtn.320241994
Dry Fork 2320242024
Hughes220231967
Zion220231967

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.