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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Arkansas has surged: up 406% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+406%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Vireo Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Arkansas: up 406% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Arkansas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.8–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Arkansas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.8–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.21.64.7
20273.21.64.8
20283.31.74.8
20293.31.84.9
20303.41.85.0

Yellow-throated Vireo Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sims1720252010
Ozark Nf1620251995
Old Milo1320251967
Locust Bayou1320231967
Rupert1220241973
Magazine Mtn1020251994
Nance1020251992
Poyen920071967
Boston Mtn.820251994
Princeton820211998
Princeton 2720222022
Hatfield 2620252017
Stephens520252010
Dry Fork 2520252024
Poyen 2520252008
Fulton420241981
Compton420221967
Ravenden Springs420132010
Springhill420222010
Rudy420252011
Hope320251971
Crows319911967
Coal Hill320231970
Marshall320182012
Hughes220231967

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.