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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Minnesota has surged: up 875% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+875%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Vireo Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Minnesota: up 875% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Minnesota is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.75–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.75–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Minnesota is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.75–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.691.5
20261.10.711.5
20271.10.721.5
20281.10.731.5
20291.10.751.5

Yellow-throated Vireo Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brook Park1220241998
Sherburne Nr720241990
Wigwam Bay620231973
Evergreen620241970
Tamarac Nwr620231991
St Stephen520161968
Nebish520231982
Edwards520241973
Lake Bronson520111978
Ashby520211997
Chatfield 2520242007
Knapp420241981
Mcgregor420241994
Brainerd420241993
Hovland320031993
Debs320241970
Caledonia320101993
Money Creek220241967
Chatfield219981976
Millville220121970
Cromwell220232012
Floodwood220242006
Bemidji219801980
Beltrami220241973
Wylie220191973

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.