BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Tennessee has surged: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+161%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Vireo Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Tennessee: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 2.2–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 2.2–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.92.13.7
20272.92.23.7
20283.02.23.8
20293.02.23.8
20303.02.23.8

Yellow-throated Vireo Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Sandy1520251966
Signal Mtn920251979
Silerton920241971
Trace Lewis920172013
Mansfield820251966
Lewis Forest720251966
Silver Pt520241974
Jasper420251967
Cades Cove420251989
Trace Collinwood420182015
Sweetlips320231969
Collinwood320251966
Belotes Bend320181966
Petersburg320131968
Union Hill320241968
Red Bank319781966
Elk Valley320251970
Fish Springs320211972
Brownsville220251968
Whiteville220251966
Trenton220231967
Campbellsville220171967
Bradyville220101968
Glen220241971
Oliver Spgs220221966

Yellow-throated Vireo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.