BirdAnalyst
Guild · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Kansas

All statesKansas

28 species in this guild. As a group they are +69%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Kansas is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 2.1–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Kansas is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 2.1–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.72.13.3
20262.72.13.3
20272.72.13.3
20282.72.13.3
20292.72.13.3

Member Species In Kansas

Forest birds species in Kansas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-38%
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-23%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae-21%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae-14%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae-4%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+25%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+36%
Wood ThrushTurdidae+39%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+48%
American RobinTurdidae+54%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+89%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+115%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+134%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+169%
Bell's VireoVireonidae+189%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+254%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae+261%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+281%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae+311%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+354%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+404%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+529%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+574%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+909%
Northern ParulaParulidae14×
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae21×
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae21×
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae24×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.