BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-billed Thrasher

MimidaeForest birdsToxostoma longirostre

Long-billed Thrasher has surged: up 865% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+865%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Long-billed Thrasher

The Long-billed Thrasher (Toxostoma longirostre) is a North American member of the Mockingbirds & Thrashers (Mimidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
8–12 in long (20–30 cm) — a slender, long-tailed songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 49 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 1 state, most concentrated in the Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Family
Mimidae · Forest birds

Notable Long-billed Thrasher TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Long-billed Thrasher. See the full index history below.

Long-billed Thrasher Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Thrasher is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.02–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Thrasher is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.02–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.020.04
20260.030.020.04
20270.030.020.04
20280.030.020.05
20290.030.020.05

Where the Long-billed Thrasher Is Detected

BBS routes recording Long-billed Thrasher, sized by most recent count.

Long-billed Thrasher Population Trend by State

Long-billed Thrasher population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Texas+748%197049

Long-billed Thrasher Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Long-billed Thrasher population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Edwards Plateau+31%19963
Oaks and Prairies+449%19855
Tamaulipan Brushlands+707%197028
Gulf Coastal Prairie12×19738

Long-billed Thrasher Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 865% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.