BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-billed Thrasher In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Long-billed Thrasher in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

12×Since 1973
8Routes In Region
41Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Long-billed Thrasher has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Thrasher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 190% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.42–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+190%Change by 2029
1.5Projected 2029 index
0.42–2.695% range
±67.1%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.40.312.5
20261.40.342.5
20271.50.372.6
20281.50.392.6
20291.50.422.6

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Long-billed Thrasher in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS92023
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS72024
Loyola BeachTEXAS62009
San PedroTEXAS52023
Lag AtascosaTEXAS42024
PetronilaTEXAS12021
IndianolaTEXAS12002
BaysideTEXAS12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.