BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-billed Thrasher Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Long-billed Thrasher in Texas has surged: up 748% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+748%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Long-billed Thrasher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Long-billed Thrasher has surged in Texas: up 748% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Long-billed Thrasher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Thrasher in Texas is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.35–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Thrasher in Texas is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.35–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.320.72
20260.530.330.73
20270.540.340.74
20280.550.340.75
20290.560.350.76

Long-billed Thrasher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Long-billed Thrasher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three Rivers1420241994
George West1220241969
L. Atascosa Nwr920231998
Rachal820231973
Loyola Beach 2720242010
Sejita720241997
Kingsville620241973
Loyola Beach620091997
San Pedro520231996
Lag Atascosa420241969
Randado420241967
Encinal420101969
Laredo420232002
Guerra420181989
Hobson320241978
Campbellton320241978
Hondo320241970
El Indio319991994
Raymondville320241974
Indian Mtn320241996
Zapata219821971
Utopia220241984
Langtry219961996
Coyanda Draw219941994
Catarina 3220232018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.