BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Long-billed Thrasher In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsForest birds

Long-billed Thrasher in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 637% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+637%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Long-billed Thrasher has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 637% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Long-billed Thrasher In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Thrasher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.3–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Thrasher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.3–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.13.4
20272.31.13.4
20282.31.23.5
20292.41.23.5
20302.41.33.5

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Long-billed Thrasher in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RachalTEXAS82023
SejitaTEXAS72024
KingsvilleTEXAS62024
RaymondvilleTEXAS52025
Mirando CityTEXAS42025
EncinalTEXAS42010
GuerraTEXAS42018
LaredoTEXAS42023
RandadoTEXAS32025
HondoTEXAS32025
El IndioTEXAS31999
Catarina 3TEXAS32025
ZapataTEXAS21982
George WestTEXAS22025
Catarina 2TEXAS22017
DilleyTEXAS22024
Agua NuevaTEXAS12023
San YgnacioTEXAS11977
CatarinaTEXAS12010
La PryorTEXAS12001
El SauzTEXAS12010
Encinal 2TEXAS12025
ProgresoTEXAS12006
MillettTEXAS12010
Pedro CreekTEXAS12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.