BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-billed Thrasher In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Long-billed Thrasher in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 707% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+707%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Long-billed Thrasher has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 707% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Long-billed Thrasher In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Thrasher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.2–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Thrasher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.2–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.13.4
20262.31.13.4
20272.31.23.5
20282.31.23.5
20292.41.23.5

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Long-billed Thrasher in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
George WestTEXAS122024
RachalTEXAS82023
SejitaTEXAS72024
KingsvilleTEXAS62024
RandadoTEXAS42024
EncinalTEXAS42010
GuerraTEXAS42018
LaredoTEXAS42023
HondoTEXAS32024
El IndioTEXAS31999
RaymondvilleTEXAS32024
ZapataTEXAS21982
Catarina 2TEXAS22017
DilleyTEXAS22024
Catarina 3TEXAS22023
Agua NuevaTEXAS12023
Mirando CityTEXAS12024
San YgnacioTEXAS11977
CatarinaTEXAS12010
La PryorTEXAS12001
El SauzTEXAS12010
Encinal 2TEXAS12024
ProgresoTEXAS12006
MillettTEXAS12010
Pedro CreekTEXAS12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.